Iran has demonstrated its capabilities on the sidelines of the Gaza war and the future of the region is governed by New Balances
The Gaza war gave Iran the opportunity to showcase the capability of its newly restructured network of allied militias, demonstrating Tehran's strategic clout while allowing it to maintain a distance from the fighting, according to members of the groups and military analysts.
Every day since October 7th. After the Hamas attack on Israel, one or another of these militias carried out an attack somewhere in the Middle East - and on some days several attacks in different places. The Houthis in Yemen target ships in the Red Sea; Kataib Hezbollah and other Iraqi groups strike American bases in Iraq and Syria; and the Lebanese Hezbollah participates in a daily exchange of fire with Israeli forces across the Israel-Lebanon border.
The attacks can seem random, but they are the fruit of a carefully measured strategy devised in the wake of the 2020 murder of Qasem Soleimani, the leader of Iran's Quds Force, to bring cohesion to the increasingly formed militia alliance - designated by Tehran as the "axis of resistance".
Although the groups seem unrelated - a rebel organization in Yemen; a guerrilla movement in Lebanon; and militias formed to fight U.S. forces in Iraq-they all have one thing in common: their loyalty to Iran, which arms, funds and inspires them, group members and analysts said. Together with Hamas, they form the main components of the "Resistance"Axis.
"What these various elements have done, going forward with these attacks, shows the strength of this proxy network that Iran has established throughout the region and how worried it is,"said Joseph Votel, a former Central Command commander who oversaw U.S. forces in the region at the time of the U.S. drone strike in Baghdad that killed Soleimani.
In interviews, officials associated with three of the major groups described a level of coordination unprecedented in nearly two decades since Iran began cultivating a variety of local allies as a means of expanding its regional influence. They said that militia representatives cooperate and consult through a joint operations room that meets regularly, usually but not always, in Beirut.
The officials said that there is no single controlling group, and each of them has a degree of autonomy on what attacks to carry out in its region and when, according to its capabilities and local agendas. For example, the Houthis took on the task of attacking shipping, with the aim of pressuring the international community to demand that Israel adopt a ceasefire in Gaza. Iraqi groups are targeting U.S. bases in response to the Biden administration's support for Israel. Hezbollah is firing at Israel to pull Israeli troops away from the Gaza front.
At the same time, officials with the groups said, all actions are calibrated to avoid a wider regional war - which suggests that while the militias have autonomy in individual operations, their actions are designed not to conflict with Iran's strategic goals.
"During the meetings, we discuss updates and progress made on all fronts and how the operations strategically benefit each front,"said an official with Kataib Hezbollah, the largest Iraqi group that carries out attacks. The official, like others, spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. "Iran provides all kinds of support but when it comes to decisions and actions on the ground, the decision is ours ."
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has played a leading role in strengthening the alliance, officials say, as the most senior figure leading the oldest, most successful and most battle-hardened group.
Soleimani's death left the axis leadership in disarray. As commander of the international wing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Soleimani cultivated militias almost single-handedly, achieving in the process a legendary status that far exceeded his official rank.
Without Soleimani, rivalries broke out, especially among the Iraqi militias, whose overall leader, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, was assassinated. In the same blow with Soleimani.
Nasrallah intervened to mediate and began to implement a new strategy, dubbed the "unity of the fronts", and all groups pledged to start operating in their areas in case any of them were attacked. The Gaza war is the first time the strategy has been put into practice.
"We consider Hassan Nasrallah to be the official spokesman of the resistance, which is one of its main pillars and most important symbols,"said a Kataib Hezbollah official. "He enjoys the respect and appreciation of all Iraqi parties and we consider him an umbrella for all of us."
Votel points to his concern after Soleimani's death that the Iraqi militias would lose the discipline imposed by their Iranian commander. Instead, he said, the restructuring seemed to have strengthened their cohesion.
Hamid Reza Azizi, a former professor of Regional Studies at Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran and now a Visiting Fellow at the German Institute for international and security affairs, said that the role Iran plays in guiding the overall strategy "is the million dollar question". "In a sense, Iran is and is not behind these activities."
Soleimani's replacement, Ismail Qani, has adopted a much lower profile than his predecessor, lacking Soleimani's charisma and history of personal relationships with groups.
As a result, Iran changed the position of the Quds Force, to allow more autonomy to local groups, while preserving their donor. Qani is very active behind the scenes, moving between the capitals of the countries where the militias are stationed, Azizi said.
"Gani is everywhere. It's a scheme,"he said. "But they deliberately want it to be very low."
An IRGC official is present at most of the Joint Operations meetings, according to a Hezbollah-linked person familiar with the proceedings. Nasr al-Din Amer, a Houthi spokesman in Sanaa who heads the SABA news agency, said that Iran is represented only as "one of all," without playing a leading role.
The strategy seems to be working well from Iran's point of view. Azizi said that it was able to assert its regional influence through disparate attacks, without provoking the main fire that could endanger its militia allies and possibly draw Iran directly into the fight.
"Iran feels quite comfortable,"he said. "These groups can come together to defend their interests and have shown their willingness not to allow one of their members, in this case Hamas, to completely leave the scene without a response."
Whether the strategy will continue to work in Iran's favor is in question as Israel expresses growing anger over Hezbollah attacks along its northern border. "If the world and the Lebanese government do not act to prevent the shooting of the inhabitants of northern Israel, to keep Hezbollah away from the border, the IDF will do it," Israeli minister Benny Gantz said last week, warning that Israel could launch a large-scale attack on Lebanon.
Israel has also intensified its attacks on Iranian allies and assets in the region. On Monday, an Israeli strike in Syria killed a senior commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Razi Mousavi, prompting threats of direct retaliation from Iran.
However, an outright war would throw Iran's strategy into disarray. But militia officials say they are confident that their attacks provide sufficient deterrence for both Israel and the United States without an escalation beyond the current level of the conflict.
