Who will run Gaza after the war The United States is looking for the best of the bad options
The Washington Post
The Biden administration says an "effective" Palestinian Authority should govern the Strip, but the idea is deeply unpopular with Israel - and many Palestinians
The Israelis say they don't want to take over the Strip. The Arab states are resisting. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas may volunteer, but the Palestinian people may not want him.
As the Biden administration begins to plan for the" next day " in Gaza - facing problematic questions such as who will run the strip once the ceasefire stops, how it will be rebuilt, and perhaps how it will eventually become part of an independent Palestinian state - stakeholders are faced with a host of inappropriate options.
On a trip to Israel and the West Bank last week, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken sought to advance those discussions, but there were few answers available. The Biden administration is pushing for the installation of an "effective" Palestinian Authority as administrator in Gaza, but it is an unpopular idea with the Israeli government and even among many Palestinians. U.S. officials acknowledge the challenge, but say that the PA is the best solution, perhaps the only one, among the list of worst options, which includes a return to direct Israeli occupation of the Gaza Strip.
"We have no illusions, that this will be easy."We will definitely have disagreements along the way,"Blinken told reporters while in Tel Aviv. "The alternative - more terrorist attacks, more violence, more suffering for civilians - is unacceptable, "he said.
After the seventh of October, Israel pledged to destroy Hamas as both a military entity and a system of government.
But after more than 15 years in power in Gaza, Hamas and its supporters are deeply ingrained in every sector of society - not only in the government ministries they run, but also in charities, courts, mosques, sports teams, prisons, municipalities and youth groups.
The de facto governing body of the Gaza Strip since 2007, when it overthrew the Palestinian Authority, Hamas has overseen the economy, healthcare, water, electricity, trade and infrastructure. It manages the security forces in Gaza-not only armed brigades, such as Qassam, which are now fighting Israeli troops on the streets but also the regular police force, including traffic policemen.
The group remains popular among many Palestinians after the attack. Both the Trump and Biden administrations have focused on brokering better relations between Israel and its Arab neighbors - at the expense of the Palestinians, who have been marginalized as an issue, as many have felt. Now, thanks to Hamas, the Palestinians are again in the lead.
Even the week-long pause in Israel's offensive on Gaza was organized in such a way as to strengthen Hamas's popularity, as happy Palestinian families welcomed wives, sisters and children released from Israeli prisons in exchange for hostages taken during the October offensive.
US officials blame Hamas for the difficult humanitarian situation in Gaza, saying that the group could have spared the Palestinians Israeli retaliation if it had not carried out the October 7 massacre. But they also acknowledge that the harsh Israeli response has inflamed Palestinian anger and made progress toward a more lasting peace difficult.
Failure to protect civilians can "drive them into the arms of the enemy,"defense minister Lloyd Austin said on Saturday.
The Israelis say they do not want to return to the occupation of Gaza. But they are discussing security improvements such as a buffer zone along its border with Israel and access to territory for Israeli forces during a transitional period that would remove some elements of autonomy from Gazans. The Biden administration is strongly opposed to any restrictions on how Gazans can use their land, and is eager for Israeli forces to hand over responsibility, possibly to international forces pledged by Arab countries, for the security of the Strip.
But any planning for the future will be complicated by what is happening as the conflict continues to escalate, observers say.
"The way the war ends will determine the range of options,"said Brian Katulis, vice president of policy at the Middle East Institute. "Every bomb that is dropped, and every day Hamas continues to emerge, increases the costs of reconstruction."
Experts say that the question of who maintains law and order after the conflict is quite complicated. The Israeli authorities recognize the need to make such plans, say the American officials who met with them last week, but they have no concrete proposals and seem to want others to decide.
After the conflict ends, a stable transition in Gaza will need to find a way "to allow military disarmament, with a mechanism to ensure that there is no rearmament for anyone," said Denis A. Ross is a former adviser to both Democratic and Republican administrations on the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations and is now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a research group.
The Palestinian Authority needs to change if it is going to run anything in Gaza.
"It's not just that they can't get in on the back of Israeli tanks,"Ross said. "The truth is that they can't manage themselves now."
The Israelis do not want UN peacekeepers, because they do not trust that the UN is receptive to their concerns. Arab countries are deeply skeptical about sending their security forces because they are worried about the possibility of having to impose force on the Palestinians if the need arises.
Ghaith al-Omari, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a former adviser to Palestinian negotiators, said: "an Arab official told me:' imagine the footage of our soldiers shooting at Palestinians and the Palestinians shooting at them'. He said that for the Biden administration, focusing on empowering the Palestinian Authority and, ultimately, a full-fledged Palestinian state, is a way to force Arab countries to engage in discussions about, and possibly participate in, a complex transition.
"In order to be able to deal with us, the Arab countries need this framework, the framework of the two-state solution and the transitional framework,"he said. "Because that way they can always claim, ' we're doing this to support the Palestinians'"."
The Palestinian Authority, which the Biden administration considers the long-term solution, has done little for the Palestinians in recent years. Its President, Abbas, turned 88 last month and is widely seen as conventional and tired - but still relatively healthy despite the cigarettes he blows during meetings with visiting delegations. He is in the eighteenth year of what was supposed to be a four-year period.
Katulis, of the Middle East Institute, said the Palestinian Authority "may be the best out of a bunch of very bad options to start with".
Its credibility with the Palestinian people has been undermined by its security role in the West Bank, which has seen its police force tasked not only with protecting Palestinians but also assisting the Israeli military occupation.
"The PA is seen as corrupt and lacks support among the Palestinian population,"said Shawqi Issa, a human rights activist from Bethlehem and a former PA minister.
Biden's officials are thinking of better days between 2007 and 2013, when Salam Fayyad, a former IMF official, served as prime minister of the PA. It has improved the entity's ability to provide basic services. US officials do not explicitly say that Abbas needs to go, nor do they venture ideas about who should replace him, saying that the Palestinians and their regional neighbors should have that conversation.
But they have ideas about fundamental reforms to lay the foundation for a more open Gaza society, which has not had the opportunity to vote in elections since 2006. After his meeting with Abbas on Thursday, Blinken told reporters that the Biden administration was seeking reforms that would "effectively deliver on the needs of the Palestinian people".
Blinken said the PA needs to fight corruption, engage with civil society and improve support for free media. He said that ultimately, voters should be faced with the choice of leadership, although he seemed to indicate that doing so should not be the first priority.
"We support free and fair elections all over the world, including, of course, for the Palestinians,"he said. "But this has to be a process and it's something we're talking about as we move from the conflict to the next day."
Offering elections now could lead to a Hamas victory, which is not what Israeli leaders are hoping for, a reason U.S. officials say other Palestinian options should be seen as more attractive. In private, officials from the far-right government of Israel refuse, saying that they do not see much difference between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, which they also accuse of undermining Israeli security.
In the long run, Issa, a former PA minister, said it is unlikely to address the daily needs of Palestinians - the kind of issues on which democratically elected leaders win and fall - as long as their territory is occupied by Israel.
"The average person in the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not see his problems solved unless the occupation ends and the Palestinian people get their rights,"he said. "All discussions about temporary solutions fall short of addressing the main problem."
One of them said that many Gazans say that they are dissatisfied with all their options - although thinking about politics is difficult while being subjected to Israeli shelling.
"Our current focus is only on ending the war,"said Safwan Jamal, 28, from Gaza City and forcibly displaced to the Nuseirat refugee camp, which has seen devastating shelling, along with shortages of food, water and electricity.
"While Hamas may be somewhat reckless, the Palestinian Authority is full of corruption and unfit to govern us,"he said.
He said that Hamas is "far from ideal", but "we are oppressed, and those wishing to help us should respect our views and facilitate elections, allowing the Palestinian people to choose their leadership, be it Hamas or others".
Lamis Haddad, a 32-year-old mother of two from Gaza City, said that both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority were "tainted by corruption".
In the long term, Biden administration officials say, a separate Palestinian state is the only stable solution to ensure security for both Israelis and Palestinians. They are still working to convince the Israelis of the importance of their vision.
"There are two schools of thought" among the Israelis, said Ross, a former U.S. negotiator. "One school of thought goes," this just proved that we can't afford a Palestinian state next to us because it can be taken over by groups like Hamas, well, we just defeated Hamas. And if you think that we can control or occupy the Palestinians Forever, exclusively on our Terms, and we will not face a successor to Hamas, then you are living in a dream world."
