Observers point to the possibility that the Russian presence in Africa and the support of the Polisario Front could serve the possibility of supporting Iranian operations in the Strait of Gibraltar
A few weeks after the Houthis targeted commercial cargo ships in the Red Sea and the losses to World Trade, it appears that Iran "has concluded that the Houthis' experience in the Red Sea was so successful that it deserves to be repeated in the Mediterranean," as reported by Elizabeth Brau, a columnist for the American magazine Foreign Policy. In fact, the IRGC, through General Mohammad Reza Naqdi, the IRGC's assistant commander for coordination affairs, threatened to close the Mediterranean Sea if the war on Gaza continued. The military official was quoted-according to the Tasnim news agency-as saying that "they (the West) will soon have to wait for the closure of the Mediterranean Sea, the Strait of Gibraltar and other waterways, "and talked about" the birth of new Resistance Forces and the closure of other waterways
Although Iran does not overlook the Mediterranean, and does not directly support groups on the Mediterranean Sea, except the Lebanese Hezbollah group and allied armed groups in Syria, and is therefore far from the Strait of Gibraltar in the Mediterranean, Joerg reinsmann, a German political analyst and director of the Middle East Freedom Forum in Berlin, does not rule out Tehran's ability to "carry out armed attacks and launch missiles against ships in the Mediterranean. In an interview with I24news, rensman explained that Iran seeks to "negatively affect important shipping routes and therefore trade, and wants to provoke insecurity and destabilization, and cause division in the West".
The Strait of Gibraltar is among the most important waterways for World Trade in all directions, as on average almost 300 ships cross it daily, representing about 20% of the world's total maritime trade and 80% of the EU's oil and gas imports, according to a site published on December 23 in the Spanish news site "Europa Sur".
In this context, Britain, which has sovereignty over Gibraltar, expressed concern about the Iranian threats. British foreign secretary George Cameron said in an interview with the Telegraph on December 24 that a "clear message should be sent to Iran that this escalation will not be tolerated in the Middle East or within the territory of the United Kingdom".
Cameron described the " Iranian threat "as one of five major" crises " in the world today, next to the Russian-Ukrainian war, the conflict in the Middle East, terrorism and climate change. Former British Prime Minister David Cameron warned that the West was " facing increasing levels of the Iranian threat."
Although Britain has declared its intention to deal firmly with Iranian threats, some European countries have not clearly expressed their position towards Tehran. German political analyst Joerg rensemann criticizes the "indecision of German foreign policy towards the power in Tehran". What's more, the German analyst shows that Iran is "aiming for friendly communication with Germany". Reinsmann criticizes Berlin's failure to put the IRGC on the EU's terrorism list, despite the fact that a German court recently ruled that Iranian state terrorism exists on German soil.
In an exclusive interview with a Houthi general for the German daily "Berliner Zeitung" on December 12, 2023, the Iranian general stated that the Houthis pay great attention to maintaining their relations at the highest level with Germany, ensuring the safety of German ships and trade. The same Iranian military official added that he asks "friends in Germany not to interfere with the United States in a problem that affects only the United States and does not affect any other country".
In the South Bank, several countries share the concern about Iranian threats, especially countries that depend on the movement of maritime trade through the Mediterranean. In a statement to I24News, Abdul Rahim Manar Eslami, head of the Atlantic Center for Security Studies and policy analysis, explained that the degree of risk of the IRGC commander's statement "is very high due to the fact that Iranian threats in recent years come from the angle of Iranian expansion and its arrival in North Africa, and the IRGC refers in his statement to a shield he calls resistance."
Given the Iranian threats, the Moroccan researcher and political analyst believes that this is not new, as he says:"ostensibly, the Iranian military leader used the pretext of the Gaza war, but it goes beyond that if we link it to a statement a year ago by the Iranian deputy leader who said that Iran has reached the western Mediterranean. Abdul Rahim Manar Al-sulaimi adds. Speaking to I24news, Al-sulaimi warns of " Iran's exploitation of the Polisario Front, which Hezbollah supervised its training to carry out operations in the Strait of Gibraltar."
Countries such as Morocco accuse Iran of seeking to form Hezbollah-like forces in North Africa, which could be used to launch attacks on Western targets and sow discord between allies at the same time. It is worth noting that Rabat severed diplomatic relations with Iran on March 11, 2009 on charges of facilitating the sending of weapons and military support by Tehran to the "Polisario" Front, based in the Algerian state of Tindouf.
On the tenth of last November, the German newspaper "Die Welt" published a detailed article about an audio leak between a senior official in the Lebanese Hezbollah and a leader in the Polisario Front. According to the sources of the German newspaper, a Hezbollah official and another in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard asked the members of the "Polisario" Front to intensify operations against Moroccan interests and target the embassies and consulates of other foreign countries, and the need to coordinate efforts between the party, Algeria and the Polisario Front.
Observers also do not exclude that the IRGC and Iranian-funded armed groups will benefit from the Russian presence in some North African countries, with the aim of trying to influence world trade in the Mediterranean in general, and the host of Gibraltar in particular, as long as it serves the interests of both countries.
European experts believe that the reluctance of some EU countries to respond to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the threats of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to repeat the same scenario in the Mediterranean will not only affect the movement of ships, but may also lead to a loss of credibility of the Union in fulfilling its security defense obligations. This may result in a loss of confidence by partner countries in the EU's ability to protect their common interests. It will also result in citizens losing confidence in the governments of their countries. In the long run, the threat of global and European cargo ships will put the purchasing power of Europeans at risk, which may affect the purchasing power of citizens, incurring further losses to the economies of their countries, similar to the repercussions of Ukraine's war on them.
