Israel plans a long-term war and aims to kill the 3 senior leadership of Hamas
Financial Times
📌 Israel is planning a war against Hamas that will last for a year or more, with the most intense phase of the ground offensive continuing until early 2024, according to several people familiar with the preparations.
📌 The multi-stage strategy involves Israeli forces, stationed inside northern Gaza, through an imminent push deep into the south of the besieged Palestinian strip.
the objectives include killing the three senior Hamas leaders - Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed al - Deif and Marwan Issa-while securing a "decisive" military victory against the group's 24 battalions and underground tunnel network and destroying its "governing capacity in Gaza".
📌 "This will be a very long war..."We are currently not halfway to achieving our goals,"said one person familiar with Israeli war plans.
📌 Israel's overall strategy for Gaza is flexible, with timing dictated by logistical factors, including operational progress on the ground, international pressure and opportunities to free Israeli hostages.
(CNN) 📌 a fragile week-long truce collapsed Friday as Israel and Hamas resumed fighting, shattering a pause in hostilities that had enabled a hostage-for-prisoner swap between the two sides. Israel said it was returning to the battle to "eliminate Hamas".
📌 The renewed high-intensity ground operation will probably require a few more months, as it enters the new year, people familiar with the preparations estimate. "The operation will not take place in a matter of weeks,"said a person familiar with the US-Israeli discussions on the war.
📌 After that, there will be a "transition and stabilization" phase of low military intensity that can last until late 2024, since the location of the Israeli ground forces during this phase is still unclear.
📌 Unlike previous Israeli military operations and wars, one Israeli official suggested that there would be no fixed endpoint. And no referee whistle for that.
📌 In response to a devastating attack by Hamas on October 7, Israel for three weeks launched heavy air strikes in Gaza, followed by a ground invasion and the seizure of large parts of the northern coastal strip. Much of the area was reduced to rubble and more than a million people were forced to leave their homes.
📌 A senior Israeli military officer said that at least 10 of Hamas ' 24 battalions were "significantly hit," with more than 50 mid-level commanders and an estimated 5,000 fighters killed.
📌 Another person familiar with Israeli war plans said that the army still considers operations in northern Gaza incomplete. "Gaza City is not finished yet, it has not been completely conquered ."It's probably 40 percent done,"the person said. "For the north as a whole, it will probably take another two weeks to a month."
📌 The Israeli ground offensive on southern Gaza, which has so far been hit only by sporadic air strikes, is expected to begin in parallel. Israeli officials noted that most of the Hamas leadership, the bulk of its fighters and rocket arsenal, and the majority of the remaining Israeli hostages captured on October 7 are now in the South.
📌 Senior Biden administration officials warned Israel that its approach to southern Gaza should be different. On a visit to Tel Aviv on Thursday, Anthony Blinken, the US Secretary of state, stressed that any such attack "must provide for the protection of civilians" and allow for increased humanitarian assistance.
📌 A person familiar with the discussions said that Washington urged Israel for a "smaller military footprint" in the South, fewer civilian casualties, a"clear humanitarian plan" and arrangements "where civilians can take refuge" to stay safe.
📌 Israeli officials admitted that the approach must change. "We know that we cannot conduct the same structure of operations in the south as we did in the North,"said a person familiar with Israeli war plans. "There are now 2 million civilians [in the south], and the method of mass evacuation of civilians [as in the North] cannot be repeated."
📌 The southern offensive will focus on Khan Yunis, the second most important urban center in Gaza and the hometown of Sinwar and guest, as well as Rafah at the southern end of the strip bordering Egypt. A person familiar with Israeli war plans said that the Gaza-Egypt crossing and underground smuggling tunnels are "the main Oxygen channel for Hamas to rebuild its military capabilities".
📌 One of the people familiar with the plans said: "it is the origin of Hamas that has turned it around... To a monster, "adding that the entire Gaza border with Egypt must be" taken care of".
📌 Israel on Friday began issuing local evacuation orders on a smaller scale for the civilian population of southern Gaza, which swelled to as much as 80 percent of the population of the Gaza Strip.
📌 One of the senior Israeli officials said: "We will make sure that there are enough "safe zones", we will warn them in advance and call on them to make an effort [to evacuate]. . . For example 1 km to the north or West". But the official warned that there are no "magic rules of engagement" that would provide places "where the enemy is confronted".
📌 The "transition and stabilization" phase of the war, which will follow the main ground campaign, is aimed at preparing Gaza for a new post-war order without Hamas. Several insiders said that the Israeli government has so far refused to determine whether the Palestinian Authority, the weak body that administers limited parts of the occupied West Bank, is in a position to regain control of Gaza.
📌 "No one, not even the United States, can talk to them about this," said one of the people familiar with the discussions, emphasizing the need for prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to keep his far-right allies within the government.
📌 Regardless, Israeli officials emphasize that they are first committed to achieving the original War goal, eliminating Hamas as a threat from the Gaza Strip, no matter what comes next or how long it takes.
📌 "The main difference [now] that Hamas does not understand - we have patience and persistence."Everything changed on October 7,"said one of the people familiar with Israeli war plans.
